June 7, 2016 is primary election day in California, and as a California voter, it can be frustrating to watch as the results come in from primaries in other states.
We’ve already seen the results from primaries, starting with the Iowa caucus all the way up to the May 24 Washington primary.
This year, the competition in both major parties -- Democratic and Republican -- seemed like it would be fierce. And it looked like California voters would play a big role in choosing the presidential nominees, especially on the Republican side.
Now, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are running on the Democratic side, and Trump is the presumptive nominee for the GOP. So, with all this watching and waiting, we wanted to know why the primaries work the way they do.
Primaries and the progressive era
The system hasn’t always been this way. In fact, before there were primaries in every state, the leaders of each party would choose their presidential nominees behind closed doors. Terry Bimes, a lecturer in governmental studies at UC Berkeley, says the primaries really got started in the progressive era, as an attack on parties. The primaries were a way to take control away from party leaders and give it to the people.
Those early primaries gave parties a way to see how people in California felt about their candidates, but they didn’t have much influence in determining the presidential nominees.
It wasn’t until after 1968 that candidates had to run in the primaries to win the nomination. Before that, candidates only had to run in a few races to show they were electable. Bimes says, “the emphasis was on an insider strategy. You had to go around and court party leaders. And, get them to support you.”
Presidential candidates were elected by party delegates from each state who voted at their party’s national convention. The conventions still happen that way today. But, back then, most delegates could vote for whichever candidate they wanted. According to Bimes, “they were sort of beauty contests.”
Now, that’s changed. Most delegates are bound. That means at the convention, most of them have to vote based on how voters in their district vote. So, say, when you’re casting a vote for Clinton or Sanders or Trump, you’re not actually voting for that person. You’re voting for a delegate to vote for that person. But, how the delegates represent voters changes state to state.
Bound, super, and unbound delegates
In California, on the democratic side, delegates represent voters proportionally, based on their population. Alameda County has 8 bound Democratic delegates. So, if each candidate wins 50% of their district, half the delegates will vote for one candidate and half for the other. But, on the Republican side, it’s winner-takes-all. The party has three delegates per district, and all three delegates vote for the candidate that wins in that district.
And it gets even more complicated. In each party, there are also delegates who are unbound -- those are delegates who can vote for whoever they want. And then, in the Democratic party, there are superdelegates. Superdelegates are usually party leaders and elected officials, like the governor, senators, and other representatives. Jerry Brown is a superdelegate, for example. There are unbound delegates in the Republican party too, but they don’t have to be state officials and party leaders. These rules give parties a way to have some insider control of the nomination process, in case they don’t agree with the voters.
So, who makes up all these rules? State and party leaders in each state make the rules. So, they change from state to state and even from election to election. Since parties are not part of the government, states are limited in how they can regulate parties.
Still, ever since the primaries have been the way they are now, unbound delegates haven’t been the deciding factor. Presidential nominees have also gotten the majority of the votes from bound delegate too.
So since California has more bound delegates than any other state, you might think the state would have a big impact on the outcome of the elections. But since California primaries are typically held in June, many voters don’t feel they get much of a choice.
California voter turnout
Mark DiCamillio, executive director at Field Poll, says that having presidential candidates to choose from on the primary ballot makes a difference to people. DiCamillio tracks California voter behavior and opinions through large-scale surveys. He says, “when you have a situation where voters don't think their vote really matters in determining the outcome at the top of the ticket, many voters choose to stay home.”
Since there are state candidates and propositions to choose from on the primary ballot as well as the presidential candidates, if people go to vote, they wind up engaging in state politics. DiCamillo says high turnout makes a difference in voter demographics too.
“In small turnout elections, older voters, regular voters, people who vote every election whether it's local, state or national will turn out. So, with a bigger turnout you get a better mix. More young people, more ethnic voters, more voters of all education levels participating,” DiCamillo says.
So, if you’re thinking, let’s have the California primaries earlier so that we get a better mix of voters and have a say in choosing the presidential nominee -- it’s not that simple. California did change the date of the primaries. From 1996 to 2008 the California presidential primaries were earlier in the year. But, it didn’t work out the way state officials wanted -- they wanted more time to campaign for the state elections. So they moved it back to June, where they’ve been since 2012. And that didn’t get the best results. In 2012, only 35% of registered California voters turned out to vote. That’s the second lowest on record.
So, what can we expect this year? Well, for one thing, voter registration has been noticeably high, so some experts are still predicting high turnout. And voting-by-mail is making it even easier to cast your ballot. Roughly half of all California registered voters have opted to vote by mail for this election.
Voting centers in the Bay Area are open now for early voting. People can cast their ballots anytime between now and June 7.
